Live coverage of the Republican caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota – plus the result of the non-binding 'beauty contest' primary in Missouri
• Live and in 3D, state-by-state election results
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is live in Washington DC - and he assesses the scale of Mitt Romney's defeats tonight:
Rommey's campaign team is spinning that defeats here and there are to be expected, pointing to the many states Rommey picked up during the 2008 nomination battle with John McCain. But it is not comparable. Once McCain won South Carolina and Florida, it was effectively over. McCain did not even bother campaigning in some of the states.
This is different. Romney had been expected to make a clean sweep of the February states and was fighting to win. Losing Missouri can be explained away: there are no delegates at stake. But Minnesota is a big loss. It is not just that he lost but that he has lost badly.
The Romney election-night party in Colorado looks like a group of well-dressed people waiting to board an airplane.
Colorado looks like a tight one, and we are being told that Rick Santorum is about to speak, which is a smart move: he's won two states – CNN and other networks have called Minnesota for Santorum – so he should get on TV before it gets too late.
In Minnesota, with 25% of the precincts reporting, Rick Santorum is doing it again. He's on 44%, with Ron Paul on 26% and Mitt Romney on 17%. I'm calling Minnesota for RICK SANTORUM.
Suggested headline for all media: "The Vest Man Wins!"
Watch how the results are playing out in real time, state-by-state – and in 3D! Here's our rather neat comprehensive election graphic page.
You know who else is having a good night? Rupert Murdoch, who has repeatedly tweeted in support of Rick Santorum, calling him the "only candidate with genuine big vision for country".
Now, you'd think Rupert would have been lined up behind Mitt Romney, right? But no, it seems not.
Only his tenth-ever tweet was this one:
Good to see santorum surging in Iowa. Regardless of policies, all debates showed principles, consistency and humility like no other.
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 1, 2012
Then, a day later:
Can't resist this tweet, but all Iowans think about Rick Santorum.Only candidate with genuine big vision for country.
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 3, 2012
And a third, five days later:
Santorum right.America a big, good society capable of anything.Not libertarian!
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 9, 2012
Now I know we are all having a laugh about how the Missouri primary was just a beauty contest and all that – but Mitt Romney has been crushed there by Rick Santorum, in all parts of the state. Santorum's even beating Romney in St Louis, and aceing him by 40,000 votes out of just under 110,000 between the two candidates.
On CNN Erick Erickson says the reason why Rick Santorum is doing so well is because Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have nuked each other to death.
I disagree. I think this just proves that the three candidates of Romney, Santorum and Gingrich each appeal to different segments of the party.
Oh and it's just after 9.45pm ET and the Associated Press's room full of boffins says Rick Santorum will win the Missouri primary. Thanks, Einsteins.
To Minnesota, and it's looking good for Santorum there too, with 13% of the precincts in, and Mitt Romney is in third place behind Ron Paul.
And in Colorado, with just a tiny fraction counted, again it's Santorum, Paul, Romney in that order.
In other news: it's a really bad night for Newt Gingrich.
NBC News and CNN finally catch up with me and call Missouri for Rick Santorum. D'uh.
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill sends over his thoughts on what it all means:
This is shaping up as a bad night for Mitt Romney only a week after his win in Florida. After seeing off Newt Gingrich in Florida, he was beginning to look like the inevitable Republican nominee. Now the questions rise up again about his failure to inspire the party grassroots. If he can't inspire them now, will they come out to work for him in November? If he can't inspire Republicans, how is he going to fare with independents?
It's a good night for Santorum if he take Minnesota, reviving a campaign that looked as if it was going to have the life squeezed out of it between Gingrich and Romney.
If Gingrich and Santorum keep winning occasional states and taking a share of the delegates, and even Paul winning maybe a state like Maine and accumulating delegates too, Romney might be denied the 1,144 delegate majority he needs. And then, the scenario American political journalists are all hoping for, it goes to a showdown at the party convention in Tampa, Florida, in August.
And on that note: in Missouri, Rick Santorum is now about 20,000 votes up on Mitt Romney with 27% of precincts in. Romney is being crushed here. And we all thought this was going to be boring.
Not everyone is delighted by CNN's "democracy inaction" coverage:
@CNN, is this for real? We are literally watching people putting chairs away. This is some sort of a piss-take, yes?
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) February 8, 2012
Update: now the chairs have all been put away. I know this because CNN are now back there live.
OK, so Rick Santorum is 10,000 votes up over Mitt Romney in Missouri, 51% to 27%, with 16% of precincts in. Romney is hosing Santorum in St Louis and its suburbs, but there isn't enough St Louis to save him here.
I'm calling Missouri for RICK SANTORUM. But AP, you can wait half an hour.
There's a school in Castle Rock, Colorado that sure has a lot of fancy Apple Macs. Just sayin'.
It must be the computer room or something.
Anyway, despite being surrounded by a roomful of Macs, the vote count is done on bits of paper being doled out by hand. In China, people are laughing at you America!
CNN now showing the people in Stillwater, Minnesota, folding up chairs in a high school gym. This is democracy in action, CNN keeps telling us.
In Missouri there are 3,100 precincts in total in the state, and more than 600 of them are in St Louis County and St Louis City – about 20% of the total of precincts, and Mitt Romney is likely to be strongest there.
On CNN, Wolf Blitzer is now goading his reporter into taking his camera into the room where they are counting the caucus ballots.
Rick Santorum looks like he's running away with Missouri – he now has a 5,000 vote lead over Mitt Romney, with 8% of precincts in. We may even be able to call this now.
Colorado – start your caucuses!
Awesome - now Wolf Blitzer is shouting questions at GOP caucus-goers via CNN's reporter in Castle Rock, Colorado.
Looks like it's pretty cold there.
From a TV coverage point of view, CNN is doing a cracking job in Minnesota, with "caucus cams" showing live shots from inside actual caucuses, and reporters being shushed by officials and everyone else sitting around on folding chairs and wearing fleeces.
Meanwhile, Fox News have Bill O'Reilly telling Charles Krauthammer what a great guy he (O'Reilly) is.
Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia raises an awful spectre:
MO tally was just tied at 3,088 each for Romney & Santorum. Let's all hope it isn't another Iowa. #allnightlong
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) February 8, 2012
CNN's Anderson Cooper is now reporting that the Pentagon is "reviewing military options" in relation to Syria, although non-military options remain the current policy.
It's a reminder that over all the froth of the presidential primaries, there's serious business going on in the rest of the world that isn't affected by Rick Santorum's performance in a Colorado caucus.
And here are the first results from Minnesota:
First precinct in from Minnesota gives Santorum 7, Paul 6, Romney 1 and Gingrich 1
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) February 8, 2012
Well I think we can call this one for … let's see. Anyway, back over to Missouri. It's very close between Romney and Santorum.
Wow, some caucuses in Minnesota have started reporting. That was quick.
Rick Santorum was glitter-bombed in Minnesota today. Which was nice.
If you want the latest county-by-county level results from Missouri, then you'll want to check out the Missouri state elections site.
With nearly 1% of the vote counted in Missouri, Mitt Romney is leading. Which is appropriate because Mitt Romney is part of the 1%.
Also, "Uncommitted" is currently in third place with 10%. It is beating Ron Paul.
Two precincts are in from Missouri! And it's Mitt Romney leading from Rick Santorum , but it's only a couple of hundred votes. Early days.
On CNN, Ari Fleischer is gamely explaining why the GOP turnout is so lacklustre on the grounds that voters think Mitt Romney has it in the bag so aren't bothered to vote.
Nice try Ari. Not so long ago I was in rural Virginia and in a huge carpark there was not a single bumper sticker for any candidate. This proves nothing but my guess is that in 2008 things would have been different.
Polls have just closed in Missouri. The non-binding polls. (There is a Democratic primary as well, and that is a real, binding primary with delegates and everything. I think we can call that one for B Obama.)
In the state of Minnesota, the GOP caucuses are about to start.
All rise for the Minnesota state song – Hail! Minnesota
Like the stream that bends to sea,
Like the pine that seeks the blue,
Minnesota, still for thee,
Thy sons are strong and true
Here's how the Associated Press sums up the slightly downbeat atmosphere tonight:
Taken together, the number of delegates at stake Tuesday was the largest one-day total yet in the Republican race to pick a rival for President Barack Obama. Even so, the campaigning was a pale comparison to the Iowa caucuses or primaries last month in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
Television advertising was sparse; neither Colorado nor Minnesota hosted a candidates' debate, and there was relatively little campaigning by the contenders themselves until the past few days.
The same was true in last weekend's Nevada caucuses, which Romney won on the heels of a Florida primary victory days earlier. The same pattern holds in Maine, where caucuses finish on Saturday.
If you are reading this then you are a real political junkie. We should print t-shirts: "Yes I was up for the Colorado primary 2012. Woo."
How did the GOP candidates react to the court ruling on California's Proposition 8 and the prospect of gays getting married – to each other?
• Newt Gingrich said the ruling exposed Americans "to the radical overreach of federal judges and their continued assault on the Judeo-Christian foundations of the United States," continuing:
Should the Supreme Court fail to heed the disastrous lessons if its own history and attempt to impose its will on the marriage debate in this country by affirming today's 9th Circuit decision, it will bear the burden of igniting a constitutional crisis of the first order.
• Mitt Romney said in a prepared statement that "unelected judges cast aside the will of the people of California," and vowed to "appoint judges who interpret the Constitution as it is written and not according to their own politics and prejudices."
• Rick Santorum sent out a tweet:
7M Californians had their rights stripped away today by activist 9th Circuit judges. As president I will work to protect marriage.
— Rick Santorum (@RickSantorum) February 7, 2012
I'm trying to think exactly what rights have been stripped away from anyone in California as a result of this ruling. The right not to be around gay married people? Yes, it's right there in the Constitution, on the back.
Once again I'd like to welcome tonight's celebrity reader, Lib Dem councillor Daisy Benson, leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Reading Borough Council.
Bret Baier on Fox News shows a graphic of GOP turnout in the five first voting states, from Iowa to Nevada. And compared to 2008, there were falls in four out of the five states – only South Carolina saw a rise in turnout. Overall, the turnout is down about 9%.
What that tells us is that for all the puffing and blowing, the Republican grassroots are really not excited about this race. And who can blame them if Mitt Romney is the front runner over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum?
And remember: it's not like the 2008 field was exciting and dynamic either.
This is the fourth US election cycle that I've covered and I can say entirely anecdotally this is the least enthusiastic of any of them. This election certainly fails the "bumper sticker" test. I can't remember the last time I saw a car with a candidate's name on a bumper sticker.
So one reason is that the field is unexcititng. Another is the deluge of negative ads from all sides, which may be turning voters off. And a third reason is that the excitement and enthusiasm on the Democratic side last time may have helped boost Republican turnout.
But who knows. The main point is: Republicans are sitting on their hands and that's not good for their prospects of winning the White House in November.
Ari Fleischer says tonight's election results are totally hardcore:
It's an old style nite bcause there are no exit polls. Usually we have a good sense of how it's going. Tonite it's just results.
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) February 7, 2012
By the way, regarding the "lactation chambers" that – like death panels – Obamacare is about to force upon America: it's only for companies with more than 50 employees. From an offical FAQ on the subject:
Do employers need to create a permanent, dedicated space for use by nursing mother employees? No. A space temporarily created or converted into a space for expressing milk or made available when needed by the nursing mother is sufficient provided that the space is shielded from view, and free from any intrusion from co-workers and the public.
Do employers have to provide a lactation space even if they don't have any nursing mother employees? No. The statute requires employers to provide a space for a nursing employee "each time such employee has need to express the milk." If there is no employee with a need to express breast milk, then the employer would not have an obligation to provide a space.
Mitt Romney is always banging on how he founded Staples (Non-Americans: Staples is a chain that sells, well, staples. And staplers). In fact it was co-founded by a guy named Tom Stemberg, who got a slice of investment from Romney's Bain Capital venture capital fund.
Stemberg remains a big fan of Romney's and is repaying the favour by investing in Romney's presidential campaign. And like Romney he also wants to see Obama's healthcare reforms repealed – because Stemberg wants to save America from the "lactation chambers":
Tom Stemberg, co-founder of mega-office supply chain Staples is questioning an Obamacare provision that discourages job creation by dictating employers funnel their capital into lactation chambers.
"Do you want [farming retailer] Tractor Supply to open stores or would you rather they take their capital and do what Obamacare and its 2,700 pages dictates – which is to open a lactation chamber at every single store that they have?" he asked.
"I'm big on breastfeeding; my wife breastfed," Stenberg added. "I'm all for that. I don't think every retail store in America should have to go to lactation chambers, which is what Obamacare foresees.
"You can't make this stuff up."
Yes, that's right, you "can't make up" the idea that women with babies might want to be able to breastfeed in private, it's that insane. In fact just typing it seems nuts.
And that's without even speculating what "lactation chambers" might be a reference to.
While we wait, here are some key facts about the states tonight:
Missouri: state capital Jefferson City
Population: 6 million
State fish: Channel Catfish
Colorado: state capital Denver
Population: 5 million
State fish: Greenback Cutthroat Trout
Minnesota: state capital St Paul
Population: 5.3 million
State fish: Walleye
So when are we expecting results tonight?
Missouri: polls close 7pm CT (8pm ET)
Minnesota: caucuses start 7pm CT (8pm ET), AP expects first results about an hour later.
Colorado: caucuses start 7pm MT (9pm ET), AP expects first results around 10pm ET.
Missouri and Minnesota are in the Central Time zone, Colorado is in the Mountain Time zone.
Rick Santorum must fancy his chances of winning the Missouri primary tonight, since he's holding his "victory party" in St Charles, one of the less exciting parts of the great state of Missouri. By which I mean St Louis.
While we are waiting for tonight's results to start gushing in, you have a period of tens of minutes to enter our unscientific and very simple election night prediction contest. It's right here. And there are Mystery Prizes! I say "mystery prizes" because that makes them sound sexy and exciting, rather than a bit rubbish.
And since there are only six entries (well, 25) you actually might win. How about that?
The New York Times's Micah Coahen on the FiveThirtyEight blog explains why tonight's caucuses and primary are a toss-up:
Characterizing an electorate for a caucus is much trickier than doing so for a primary. That's a reason there have been very few polls previewing Tuesday's contests — it's difficult for pollsters to model the likely turnout.
So while pollsters PPP have striven to do meaningful polling, it's hard to put together a meaningful data set.
Our polling guru Harry Enten offers an explanation for how Mitt Romney will perform tonight – in inverse proportion to the number of evangelical voters:
Graphically, the relationship between born-again Christian and evangelical and the Romney vote becomes quite clear. Romney's percentage of the vote as opposed to the proportion won by the conservative alternatives (by now, just Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum) tallies quite closely with the percentage of voters in a state's exit polls who say they are born-again Christian or evangelical.
So with five states having held caucuses or primaries to decide the Republican presidential nomination, tonight it's the turn of Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri to add their voice.
Here's what is interesting tonight: the results are entirely unpredictable. Because very little polling has been done after the excitement of the early states – where there were more polls than caucus-goers in Iowa – the winners and losers are up in the air.
For Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, these three states are a chance to throw a wrench into the Mitt Romney Conveyor Belt of Success. Or, if Romney wins all three, they face getting crushed by the Mitt-Machine.
In the case of Minnesota and Colorado, these are real caucuses, with 40 and 36 national convention delegates at stake in a roundabout way. (The caucuses actually select delegates to a state convention later in the year, as is the case in the Iowa caucuses.) But that's still more than is at stake in the Missouri primary today – which has precisely zero delegates at stake.
That's because the Missouri primary is a pro forma contest – the details of which need not concern us right now – that some are describing as a "beauty contest". That's not accurate either, since in a beauty contest the winner at least gets a sash and a tiara. And let's not consider the prospect of Newt Gingrich in a swimsuit.
But Missouri is at least a high-powered straw poll, and let's face it, if you're reading this you are a politics junkie and would probably watch turkeys caucusing on the subject of Christmas. Which would be pretty interesting because … well, never mind.
The polls close in Missouri at 8pm ET, exactly the Colorado caucuses begin. We should start getting the first results from Minnesota at around 9pm ET, which is coincidentally when the caucuses in Colorado start, which results from the Centennial State from 10pm ET onwards.
Please, leave your comments below, especially if you are a Republican from Colorado, Minnesota or Missouri. Or at least pretending to be one on the internet. But we'd prefer real Republicans from CO, MO or MN, thank you.
Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the latest states to vote in the Republican presidential nomination process. And it's a triple bill tonight. Here's Ryan Devereaux's precis.
For the first time since the battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination began, multiple states states are weighing in on the race on the same day. Colorado and Minnesota hosting caucuses, while Missouri is hosting a "non-binding" primary.
Mitt Romney is in good standing in Colorado. The former Massachusetts governor handily won the state in 2008. Colorado is home to a significant conservative demographic, particularly in the city of Colorado Springs, which houses the Christian conservative organization, Focus on the Family, and a large evangelical population. Colorado's caucuses are only open to the state's registered Republicans, of which there are over a million.
Rick Santorum could have a shot at stealing some of Romney's momentum in both Minnesota and Missouri. According to Public Policy Polling, Santorum has the edge on Romney in Minnesota, where the GOP is known to be deeply conservative. Meanwhile the former Pennsylvania senator has been campaigning hard in Missouri, and his chances at victory could be bolstered by the fact that Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot in the state. Though there no delegates up for grabs in Missouri, a win would certainly add some energy to Santorum's campaign, which hasn't been able to claim victory since the Iowa's primary last month.
Ron Paul is under pressure to deliver improved results after a poor performance in Nevada. The Texas congressman is known to thrive in caucus states but failed to do so there. Paul's focus on caucus states is underscored by the fact that he's chosen to opt out of today's Missouri primary.
Meanwhile, all signs point to a bad day for Newt Gingrich. The former house speaker won't be campaigning in any of the three states at stake today and instead will be heading to Ohio. Gingrich's poll numbers have lagging and the drawn-out contest he previously advocated for increasingly looks like it could be his undoing.