If the SNP stays the course and supports same-sex marriage, it will not threaten its pursuit of independence
The Scottish government's consultation on equal marriage closed at the weekend and the last few days before the deadline saw a frenzy of lobbying activity from those on both sides of the argument.
Scotland for Marriage, which is supported by various faith groups and churches, including the Catholic church, launched a campaign opposing any change in the law. Those backing change have also made their feelings clear, with a "rainbow" coalition of organisations handing in 18,000 responses in favour of introducing marriage rights for same-sex couples.
In many ways the fight is only now beginning in earnest. Certainly the debate has gradually increased in ferocity, with pro-change protesters from the Humanist Society and religious opponents of the proposals separated by police lines at a rally held last week outside the Scottish parliament. It would therefore be understandable if the SNP government was starting to feel the heat, especially since the Scotland for Marriage camp have been playing the vote-losing card.
One of the leading figures in Scotland for Marriage, former SNP leader Gordon Wilson, has been hard at it, issuing dire warnings that the policy may derail the SNP's cherished goal of independence. Speaking on the BBC's Newsnight Scotland programme, he claimed the SNP were "busy alienating voters", advising the SNP leadership: "If you want independence, change course."
This is, of course, utter nonsense. Introducing equal marriage will no more jeopardise the cause of independence than the 2000 repeal of section 28 cost the Scottish Labour/Lib Dem coalition the 2003 Scottish parliament elections. (It didn't. They won.)
The SNP leaders need no lessons in Scottish political history. They will remember only too well the bitterness and rancour of the debate that took place in 2000 in the runup to the repeal of the notorious section 28 (or more accurately section 2A), which banned the "promotion" of homosexuality in schools.
They will remember the Keep the Clause campaign and the private referendum run by Stagecoach Group founder Brian Souter, which saw more than a million Scots vote to keep section 28. They will remember the Scottish parliament debate which ended with a vote in favour of repeal. They will also remember that, after this perfect political storm of epic proportions, the waters closed over the Keep the Clause campaign with nary a ripple of political fallout.
The lesson of history, therefore, is simple. If the Scottish government keeps its head and stays the course, the opposition to same-sex marriage will not threaten the SNP's pursuit of independence. The opposition will instead dissipate, just as it did with section 28. It will dissipate partly because those opposed, despite their claims, do not represent the majority of Scots. (The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey published in 2011 showed that support for same-sex marriage has increased and now stands at 61%, up from 40% in the 2002 survey).
In the late summer I attended the 25th anniversary celebrations of a friend. An army of extended family had travelled the length and breadth of the country to help prepare. The party was held in a nearby barn, festooned with homemade decorations. There were bales of hay to sit on; children ran and played and jumped on the bouncy castle. The happy couple smiled and laughed and cuddled their tiny great-niece. It was like something from a 1950s Hollywood movie.
Except that the couple celebrating their anniversary were both women. I don't know if my friends, who became civil partners five years ago, have any desire to get married. I do know that it is hard to think of a pairing that better demonstrates the merits of a longterm loving relationship. Frankly, I find the suggestion that they would "taint" the institution of marriage both sad and ridiculous.
The Scottish government has made it clear that it tends toward the view that same-sex marriage should be introduced. This is an opportunity for Scotland to lead the way, to show that it is a modern, enlightened and inclusive nation. It will be a great loss if we fail to take it. That is why the SNP should have courage and keep the faith on equal marriage.