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Syria: 'heading for civil war' - live updates

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• Russia submits new draft resolution on Syria to the UN
• Syria's divisions appear to be deepening, Ian Black reports
• UN to train Arab League observers

1.22pm: Index on Censorship has investigated the state of the media in Egypt, one year after the beginning of the revolution and it says the picture is far from rosy. Sharia Amin writes:


The military authorities controlling the country in the transitional period have yet to loosen their tight grip on the media and purge Egyptian state media of corrupt employees.

The media scene is more vibrant and diverse than it was under Mubarak's authoritarian regime, but even after the launch of new private TV channels and publications, and the debut appearances of opposition figures on the small screen, some media analysts claim the reforms are not deep enough to effect tangible change ...

From the outset, the interim military government issued directives for any media coverage of the military to be sent to the Armed Forces Morale Affairs Department for review before broadcast or publication. Broadcasters and editors working for Egyptian state-owned and independent media continue to complain about heavy censorship of their work, and in recent months several have resigned in protest.

The report coincides with an article in al-Masry al-Youm, which says that the de facto interim ruler, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawim "has ordered the formation of a committee of high-ranking army generals tasked with ensuring the Egyptian armed forces are given positive media coverage". Al-Masry al-Youm says its sources did not elaborate on how the new body would differ from the Morale Affairs Department.

12.45pm: Here's a summary of the main developments so far today:

Syria

The leader of the Free Syrian Army has called on the Arab League to refer Syria to the UN security council. Speaking to Reuters, Colonel Riad al-Asaad said: "We call on them to turn the issue over to the UN security council and we ask that the international community intervene because they are more capable of protecting Syrians at this stage than our Arab brothers."

Fighting between defected soldiers and the regular Syrian army appears to be getting closer to Damascus. The state news agency blamed terrorists for the killing of six soldiers including a brigadier general six miles south-west of the capital. Activists claim the Free Syrian Army is holding off a government assault in Zabadani north west of Damascus.

UN officials are trying reword a new draft resolution on Syria put forward by Russia which has consistently blocked UN attempts to condemn the Assad regime. One diplomat dismised the resolution as "playing for time". The new  draft is heading for "diplomatic limbo" according to the Russian press agency RIA Novosti.

A dispute has broken out over control of the British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, one of the main sources of information on the crackdown in Syria. Two rival websites have been set up claiming to represent the true voice of the Observatory.

Egypt

The lawyer for Hosni Mubarak has described the ousted dictator as "a clean man who could say no wrong", as he opened the case for the defence. The prosecution is calling for the death penalty for Mubarak, who is charged with complicity in the killing of hundreds of protesters during an 18-day uprising that toppled his 29-year, authoritarian regime last February. Farid el-Deeb told the court Mubarak "has been mauled by malicious talk. He has been targeted from all directions and his reputation has been hit by tongues and pens." The trial has been adjourned until Wednesday.


Bahrain

• Bahrain is to introduce a law banning children from taking part in political gatherings, rallies and demonstrations, Trade Arabia reports. Human Rights and Social Development Minister Dr Fatima Al Balooshi said the bill would protect the rights of children but activists say a number of children been harmed by security forces cracking down on opposition on behalf of the government.

Yemen

Yemen's opposition has accused the party of outgoing president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, of wanting to tear up the Gulf-brokered initiative for the transfer of power after the foreign minister said the presidential election could be delayed because of security concerns. Ghalib al-Odainy, a spokesman for the opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), said the aim of the foreign minister's statement was to put the country in chaos and then avoid the Gulf initiative and the presidential elections".

12.33pm: The Yemeni opposition have accused Ali Abdullah Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) party of intending to rip up the Gulf initiative for the transfer of power, after the foreign minister said the presidential election, set for February, may be delayed by security concerns.

In an interview shown on al-Arabiya TV, Abubakr al-Qirbi, said:

Unfortunately, there are a couple of events relating to security, and if they are not solved ... it will be difficult to run the elections on 21 February.

Islamist fighters siezed the town of Radda, about 170km (105 miles) southeast of the capital Sana'a, on Sunday. Saleh has long portrayed himself as a bulwark against al-Qaida, which has won him backing in the past from the US and Saudi Arabia.

The opposition coalition, which shares power with the GPC in an interim government charged with leading Yemen to a vote and ending fighting between Saleh's forces and those of a rebel general and tribal magnates, rejected any delay. Ghalib al-Odainy, a spokesman for the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), said:


The statement makes clear the practices of President Saleh's regime, which aim to create chaos ...These statements make it clear that the handover of Radda was with the complete approval of Saleh's regime. The goal is to put the country in chaos and then avoid the Gulf initiative and the presidential elections.

11.49am: On Sunday, Bahrain's king announced constitutional amendments giving parliament more powers of scrutiny over the government led by the king but in his speech he made no mention of the continued clashes between riot police and protesters. Meanwhile, activists continue to report a number of arrests and violent incidents, including deaths.

Over the weekend, the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights (BCHR) claims three people died in 24 hours over the weekend, one of them a self-immolation by a woman whose son had been beaten by the security forces.

On Friday, the ministry of Interior announced it had found the body of 24-year-old Yousif Ahmed Muwali (pictured left) in Amwaj. It said he drowned but his family told BCHR he was tortured, and say there are igarette burns on his arms and bruises on different parts of the body.

Badriya Ali, 59, from from Sanabis reportedly died of burns on Saturday. She had seen her son severely beaten in her house by security forces and also witnessed a number of attacks on her village, according to the BCHR. Her family said she was terrified and set herself on fire on the roof of her home.

Salman Moshin, from Barbar, also reportedly died on Saturday. The BCHR said she suffocated after a teargas canister was shot into her home.

Meanwhile, Trade Arabia reports that Bahrain is to ban children from taking part in political gatherings, rallies and demonstrations.

The human rights and development minister said the step is necessary to "protect their [children's] rights but, according to activists, children have repeatedly been harmed by security forces crushing opposition to the government. Some of the recent claimed examples, highlighted by the BCHR include:

Esraa Saeed Salman, 9, who received emergency treatment after inhaling teargas.

Sayed Alawi Sayed Samad, 15, arrested on Friday in AlGhuraifa.

Noura, 2, sprayed in the face with a chemical by police after they raided her family's home looking for protesters.

11.15am: The Arab League's monitoring mission to Syria is due to end on Thursday. Reuters provides a useful guide to what the Arab League could do next. Here's a summary of the main options it outlines:

• The idea of extending the mission is opposed by some members after at least three monitors quit in protest at its inability to stop the crackdown.

• A source told Reuters that the league could consider beefing up the mission to include 3,000 monitors accompanied by their own security.

• The league could impose sanctions as it threatened in November, when Assad refused to sign the Arab peace deal. But sanctions take time to work and many people question their effectiveness.

• Qatar has proposed sending in Arab troops, but League sources say it could be difficult to rally support for such a move, which would face resistance from Arab rulers allied to Damascus or worried about unrest at home.

10.37am: Fighting between defected soldiers and the regular Syrian army appears to be getting closer to Damascus.

The state news agency claimed an "armed terrorist group" killed six soldiers in a rocket-propelled grenades assault in Sahnaya, six miles south west of the capital.

Meanwhile heavy fighting has continued in Zabadani a town north west of the capital, according to activists.

An update edited by Ausama Monajed, a member of the opposition Syrian National Council member, said:

Defections continue as 20 additional soldiers mutinied in the Western Mountain area and clashed with Assad loyalists before their death ... The Fourth regiment is still unable to break into the defences of Zabadani and Madaya as more than 60 soldiers were killed after 250 officers and soldiers defected.

A lot of weapons and munitions have also been seized by the defected troops, allowing them to hold their ranks and positions for a longer period of time.

The report could not be independently verified.

Video has emerged claiming to show armed men touring the area in a car. Blogger Maysaloon has this commentary on the footage:

The video appears to show armed men who claim to be defending the inhabitants from the Syrian Army that is still loyal to Assad. There seem to be checkpoints around the town and the guards appear relaxed and confident. They also appear to be organised, communicating via radio and maintaining guard shifts. One of the guards appears to have a list of names that they are looking out for to capture. Not sure what they want with the names on that list as the context isn't very clear.

If the fighting is now intense in the Zabadani, which is a short drive from Damascus, then the level of defections and the scale of the revolt against Assad is now more serious.


The centre of Damascus remains calm on the face of it, Ian Black reported from the city.

Damascus is surrounded by the army's 4th division, commanded by the president's brother Maher. Government buildings are protected by anti-blast barriers. Roads near the presidential palace and defence ministry are closed. At the state security HQ, in Kafr Sousseh, machinegun-toting guards look out from sandbagged emplacements.

10.25am: The Arab World's most high-profile trial is back underway today, as Hosni Mubarak returns to the now-famous police academy building in New Cairo to watch his lawyers begin his defence, writes Jack Shenker in Cairo.

The prosecution, which is calling for the death penalty against Mubarak and former Egyptian interior minister Habib al-Adly for their part in the gunning down of anti-regime protesters in January last year, rested their case just over a week ago. Now Judge Ahmed Refaat has allocated one month for the defendants - who, as well as Mubarak and al-Adly, also include Mubarak's two sons, a former business associate and six senior police officers - to respond.

Mubarak's verdict is likely to hinge on the question of how much awareness the toppled dictator had of the fact that his security forces were using live ammunition against demonstrators. I've spoken to some of the prosecution lawyers leading the case, and they are confident that through autopsy reports, video evidence and eyewitness accounts they have established beyond any doubt that the police used live rounds in the early stages of the uprising.

They also feel that the, through the testimony of al-Adly's successors - who told the court that such an order could only come from the head of state - and al-Adly's claim that he briefed Mubarak on the security situation as it unfolded, they have established that Mubarak knew about the protester deaths but did nothing to prevent them and is therefore legally culpable for murder. Whether or not that murder was premeditated, which is the criteria required for the death penalty, is more hazy: there is some circumstantial evidence that Mubarak gave the order himself, but many key audio and video recordings that could potentially prove this have been destroyed by regime officials.

Some legal experts are predicting that Mubarak will be handed down a sentence of between 10 and 25 years, though the reality is that no one really knows what the outcome will be. Egyptian criminal cases rest on the final opinion of the judge - there is no jury - and Ahmed Refaat has proved to hard to read.

Many of the prosecution statements have appealed to sentiment and politics rather than legal arguments, raising fears among some that, whatever the final decision, this case will have been decided on political calculations rather than rule of law; an ironic nod to the judicial system that developed under Mubarak himself. But for the families of the almost 900 Egyptians who lost their lives in the struggle to bring down Mubarak, many of whom are outside the courthouse today, the only just verdict will be a guilty one.

10.13am: Divisions in the Syrian opposition are being played out in an extraordinary row over control of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Observatory's spokesman Rami Abdulrahman (pictured) has been repeatedly quoted by the international media in updates on the latest on the crackdown in Syria.

Last month Reuters interviewed him in his two bedroom house in Coventry, where it said he combined monitoring Syria with running a clothes shop down the road.

Now a rival faction claiming to represent the board of the Observatory claims Abdulraham is an alias for a man named Osama Ali Suleiman, who they claim has tried to usurp the organisation. It accuses Abdulrahman (or Suleiman) of changing passwords on the Observatory's website and declaring himself chairman.

He denies the claim which he says are being made by London based hospital consultant Mousab Azzawi.

An open letter, claiming to represent the real Observatory which cites Azzawi as a trustee, is dismissive of Abdulrahman, or Suleiman. It describes him as installer of "satellite dishes" who is unable to communicate in English (which is not true) and who only "had a very modest level of education in Syria".

It says Abdulraham was asked to stop publishing unverified updates on the site, and claimed he was linked to Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of the current Syrian president.

It adds: "Mr Osama acts authoritatively with no peers to verify, support or challenge his work. You will already be aware that the SOHR is London based. This is because the majority of our members are based in London whereas Mr. Osama is solely based in Coventry."

Abdulraham, admits that his real names is Osama Ali Suleiman, but says he has used the working name Abdulrahman for years 20 years. "Mousab Azzawi is trying to use our name, he has nothing to do with us," he said.

He issued this statement:

Since the start of the Syrian Revolution the Syrian regime and some of its loyalists, who live in Britain, are trying the discredit the Observatory and distort its image by launching websites using the name of the organisation, speaking to the foreign media on behalf of the Observatory, and making statements which are not related to the reports and the data issued by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights regarding human rights violations inside Syria.

Moreover, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stresses that its Director and Founder Mr Rami Abdurrahman is the only official spokesperson of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and there are no other members of the organisation outside Syria apart from Mr Abdurrahman himself and the English spokesperson for the Observatory Miss Hivin Kako.

As a result of the row there are now two websites claiming to represent the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

They are a Coventry-based one run by Abdulrahman, described as "the only official site of the Syrian Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

And a London-based one described as "The Official Site of the London Based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

8.37am: (all times GMT) Welcome to Middle East Live. UN officials are poring over a new Russian draft resolution on Syria as divisions in the country appear to be deepening.

Here's a round up of the latest developments:

Syria

Russia has submitted a new draft resolution on Syria to the UN security council opposing any firm action against the Assad regime. One diplomat dismissed the resolution as "playing for time", according to AFP

No one thinks the revolution will have a happy end any time soon, Ian Black reports from Damascus.

Syria's divisions appear to be deepening.

"For the last 10 months, millions of people have occupied the middle ground," says Badr, a lecturer. "But Assad is leaving us with no choice."

Another joke makes the point well: citizens are being told they must no longer wear grey clothes – only black or white are allowed.

No one can accurately predict how long the uprising will continue. On the opposition side, optimism of the will is tempered by a realisation that in the short term the balance of forces is not in their favour and is unlikely to change quickly – barring a Libyan-style foreign military intervention, which few want or expect. 

Louay Hussein, an independent, Alawite writer and intellectual, said only a political solution could bring down the regime. "The crisis is in deadlock," he argued. "All the signs are that we are heading for open-ended civil war. Assad still has quite a lot of support. It's not just a question of repression."

The economist Abdel-Karim takes the long view. "I have no doubt the regime will be toppled. The problem is that the longer it takes, the more powerful the Islamists will become. Those who advocate violence will gain ground. It's a question of time and cost: time is getting shorter but the price is getting higher."

Ian also reports on the widespread belief that the regime was behind the reported suicide attacks either of Christmas, and the killing of the French journalist Gilles Jacquier.

What is extraordinary about all these incidents is the assumption of so many Syrians that the regime would act with such murderous duplicity.

The United Nations is to begin training Arab League observers monitoring the uprising in Syria, the BBC reports. The training, which will  begin after Arab League foreign ministers meet this weekend to discuss mission, will be carried out by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Assad regime has suffered a series of high-level defections, the Telegraph reports. Following the flight to Turkey of a brigadier-general, Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, a second military leader was filmed announcing his defection to opposition supporters inside the country. And Homs member of Parliament, Imad Ghalioun, announced from Cairo he was also leaving in protest.

Homs activist Khalid Abu Salah is a emerging as a potential new leader of Syria, claims blogger Maysaloon. Salah has appeared in series of videos showing evidence of the crackdown to Arab League monitors

 In this clip, Maysaloon translates a speech Salah gave at his brother's funeral:

The most important thing that we have seen in this revolution is that we have all become brothers and family ...  If we all continue to love each other, then no security, no army, no shabiha, no Iran and not even Russia can stand against us.


 

Egypt

Liberals and Islamists in Egypt have a announced a temporary power-sharing deal to install a Muslim Brotherhood leader as speaker of the country's newly elected parliament. The Washington Post reports: 

The agreement among six political parties all but guarantees that the Muslim Brotherhood'sFreedom and Justice Party will lead Egypt's new parliament. Under the power-sharing agreement, the ultraconservative Salafist Nour party and the liberal al-Wafd party would also claim top positions, with their representatives serving as deputy speakers, the parties announced during a news conference Monday at the Freedom and Justice Party's headquarters.

A new book by a female former member of the Muslim Brotherhood details how the organisation discriminates against women, al-Masry al-Youm reports. 

Throughout her work, Abdel Moneim decries the sisters' internalization of oppression as women are socialized in a way that compels them to accept male dominance within the organization — and the household.

Early in the book, Abdel Moneim condemns what could be interpreted as the Brotherhood's exploitation of the permissibility of polygamy in Islam.

Iran

Almost 100 academics, writers and activists have a signed a letter condemning the targeted assassination of nuclear scientists in Iran.
 

Regardless of where we stand on Iran's nuclear program, we find these assassinations outrageous because they target technical or scientific elements of a society without due consideration for human rights, due process of international and national laws, and lives of innocent individuals caught in the crossfire.

These types of killings have to stop, not only because they harm a nation's scientific community and its civilians, but also because they build a deep psychological scar on the nation's public mind prompting it to ask for revenge in kind. 

Bahrain

The names of 56 people killed in the crackdown against pro-democracy protesters in Bahrain have been published, Enduring America reports. The list does not appear to include five policemen who have died in the violence, it says.


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