Live coverage of the final full day of campaigning by the pack of Republican candidates ahead of Iowa's GOP caucuses
• Read the latest news coverage from the campaign trail
Here is our lunchtime update (tea time update if you are a UK reader):
• Candidates continued to campaign furiously for votes with the Iowa caucuses just 30 hours away. Six candidates continued to hit the Main Streets and airwaves of the state, emplying high profile surrogates and cajoling supporters to turn out on Tuesday night.
• The latest polls continue to show a very close race, with only a handful of percentage points separating the top three of Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, with Romney holding steady, Paul possibly losing ground and Santorum creeping up
• In a rally this morning Mitt Romney compared President Obama's promises on the economy to the short-lived marriage of reality TV star Kim Kardashian
• Admitting that the barrage of negative ads has hurt his campaign, Newt Gingrich told journalists: "I don't think I'm going to win"
• Ron Paul attracted a huge crowd of journalists and supporters to an event in downtown Des Moines, accompanied by his son, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
• In her only television ad in recent weeks, Michele Bachmann explicitly compared herself to Margaret Thatcher
• Texas governer Rick Perry welcomed hundreds of unpaid volunteers from the Lone Star state to Iowa to help his last-minute push for fourth place or better
And don't forget to enter our exciting Iowa Caucus Prediction competition – and win prizes.
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is also in Iowa, and he's keeping track of the latest thrust and parry by the Republican candidates today as they campaign furiously:
Romney's team appear confident they will take first place on Tuesday night, providing a strong base for the contests to come later in January: New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. They would ideally like to have the nomination resolved by then in order to concentrate on Obama.
Conscious that a late surge by Santorum could upset his plans, Romney for the first time criticised Santorum on Sunday, saying he "has spent his career in the government in Washington".
Ewen notes that Michele Bachmann has scraped together enough cash for a television ad in which she repeatedly compares herself to Margaret Thatcher. At the four second mark of this campaign ad, Bachmann places herself next to a photo of "former British PM Margaret Thatcher" and the headline "America's Iron Lady". Modest too.
Adam Gabbatt in Polk reports that Rick Santorum could only escape the media scrum outside his event just now by squeezing through a narrow gap between buildings.
With dozens of media waiting for Rick Santorum outside the Reising Sun Cafe – and Santorum having an engagement at noon – the candidate decided to attempt a low key exit through the back door of the cafe. Adam reports:
Unfortunately word got out and Santorum was quickly surrounded by 20 or so journalists. There was no obvious way for Santorum to slip away – but as he parried questions in the freezing temperatures an industrious aide spotted a two foot gap between two buildings and ushered the Presidential candidate through it, media in hot pursuit.
Insert your own metaphor about the tightness of the race in Iowa. And I would like to apologise for the YouTube headline, "Santorum through a tight gap".
The Guardian's own Adam Gabbatt is literally on the ground in Iowa, where he is outside a Rick Santorum event and talking to previously undecided voters who have decided to back the former Pennsylvania senator:
Troy Kilzer, waiting to see Rick Santorum outside a packed Reising Sun Cafe in Polk City, 15 miles north of Des Moines, "finally" decided to back Santorum a week ago, having been torn between the former senator and Mitt Romney.
"I wouldn't say I'm in love with him, but I'm going to support him," Kilzer said. He voted for Mick Huckabee in 2008, and says Santorum "isn't as much like Huckabee as I'd like", but was particularly swayed by Santorum's faith.
"I'm a born again Christian, Santorum brings Christian values into his decision making."
Kilzer, from Ames, said he has been more influenced than usual by television advertising in his decision making as well as looking online. He believes Santorum will come "first or second in Iowa".
"A lot of my friends have switched over the last few days," Kilzer said. He said many people were only just making their minds up about their candidate of choice.
According to the Des Moines Register poll on Saturday, about 40% of likely voters still hadn't made up their minds who to support, so Troy is one of those who are slowly making their final choice.
Have I mentioned that you should enter the Guardian's exciting Iowa Caucus Prediction contest – help us crowd-source the Iowa caucus result and win fabulous* prizes. Including your own copy of the Ron Paul Family Cookbook, with Carol Paul's famous Banana Nut Bread recipe.
* Warning: prizes may not be fabulous
On Fox News just now, influential Iowa Republican congressman Steve King says that Ron Paul is an admirable man and a dangerous lunatic who would have the United States destroyed by the combined forces of North Korea, Iran and Venezuela.
And I only paraphrase King slightly.
So Fox News went live to Rick Santorum's appearance in Polk City. But the sound feed wasn't working. So we got a 10 second shot of Santorum flapping his gums like a fish out of water. Which is not that unusual.
Remember Newt Gingrich used to be all "oh not the negative advertising!" and "every attack ad makes St Ronald Reagan cry"? Well, he's gone. Meet the New Newt, ready to start a two-fisted brawl, according to New York magazine's Daily Intel blog.
After some delightful scene-setting following Gingrich and pack around Iowa – sample quote: "it was more of a full-blown media clusterfuck" – we find Gingrich being goaded in a bar by MSNBC's Chris Matthews that Gingrich had let Romney's super-PAC "kick the shit" out of him:
Then Gingrich went on, incredibly, to lay out his post-Iowa strategy. "New Hampshire is the perfect state to have a debate over Romneycare and to have a debate about tax-paid abortions, which he signed, and to have a debate about putting Planned Parenthood on a government board, which he signed, and to have a debate about appointing liberal judges, which he did," Gingrich said. "And so I think New Hampshire is a good place to start the debate for South Carolina."
And you thought all the fun was going to end on 3 January? Newt is just getting started. Just ringing my bookie to lay a bet on Huntsman.
From across the Atlantic, Mike Smithson, founder of PoliticalBetting.com – freedom-loving British people being able to bet on politics, unlike the overregulated Socialists of America – weighs the odds in Iowa:
It's a good point: the Romney Ceiling Effect.
Another fascinating piece over the weekend you may have missed was this from Politico, which accurately dissects the failings of Rick Perry's presidential campaign.
Here's the key quote from "a senior Perry adviser":
There has never been a more ineptly orchestrated, just unbelievably subpar campaign for president of the United States than this one.
If that's what a "senior adviser" says, imagine what the junior advisers think? Hard to argue with, although Fred Thompson's 2008 campaign was spectacularly rubbish. But there is this:
In a blistering indictment, sources close to the operation describe a new team that was stunned to arrive in October and find a campaign that wasn't executing the most rudimentary elements of a modern presidential campaign: no polling or focus groups, no opposition research book on their own candidate to prepare for attacks and debate prep sessions that were barely worth the name.
Where are the candidates today? In Iowa a better question would be: where aren't they?
There's so much going on today I'm just going to paste the whole schedule in for your reading pleasure. All times are CT (ET -1, GMT -6).
Mitt Romney
8.10am: Holds a rally. Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds, Davenport
11.50am: Holds a rally. Weber Paper, Dubuque
4.10pm: Holds a rally, Pate Asphalt, Marion
8.40pm: Holds a rally, Competitive Edge, Clive
Rick Santorum
10am: Holds a meet-and-greet with supporters. The Reising Sun Cafe, Polk City
11.30am: Holds a meet-and-greet with supporters. Hotel Pattee, Perry
2pm: Holds a meet-and-greet with supporters. Pizza Ranch, Boone
4pm: Holds a meet-and-greet with supporters. Pizza Ranch, Newton
6pm: Holds meet-and-greet with supporters. Pizza Ranch, Altoona
8pm: Is interviewed on Hannity, Fox News.
Ron Paul
In Iowa to campaign with son, Senator Rand Paul.
11.15am: Makes Polk County appearance. Des Moines Marriott Downtown, Des Moines
1pm: Makes Scott County appearance. SteepleGate Inn-Williamburg Room, Davenport
2.30pm: Makes Linn County appearance. The Hotel at Kirkwood Center, Cedar Rapids
4pm: Makes Black Hawk County appearance. Cedar Rapids
5.30pm: Makes Cerro Gordo County appearance. Prime N Wine, Mason City
Newt Gingrich
9am: Visit to the Heartland Acres Agribition Center, Independence
Noon: Holds a town hall. Schrader Excavating and Grading, Walford
6.30pm: Visits Newt 2012 Davenport Office
8pm: Participates in Hotel Blackhawk Bowl meet and greet. Davenport
8.25pm: Appears for interview on Fox News Channel's Hannity.
Rick Perry
12.30pm: Greets voters. Stoney Creek Inn, Sioux City
4pm: Greets voters. Santa Maria Vineyard, Carroll
6.30pm: Campaign rally, Hotel Pattee, Perry
Michele Bachmann
1pm: Stops by Paula's Restaurant, West Des Moines
8pm: Appears as guest on Fox News Channel's Hannity.
9pm: Holds event. Bachmann For President Iowa HQ, Urbandale
Oh and Jon Huntsman is in New Hampshire. Again.
One interesting thing: Michele Bachmann has dramatically scaled back her appearances today, perhaps because of the bad PR she was picking up at the end of last week after she attracted roughly zero voters to her public meet'n'greets.
The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is in Des Moines, and he sees the Democratic party's newly-established "war room" under siege from Occupy the Caucuses protesters last night:
Abour 15 protesters entered the base at the Renaissance Savery hotel, complaining they were being prevented from meeting with Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Some gained access to what the DNC is calling their war room – a centralised space set aside for providing press briefings during the Iowa caucuses – before being escorted out by police.
It seems that Wasserman Schultz wasn't actually in Iowa, although there seems some confusion on that point.
Today's round-up of must-reads:
• Headed for a Photo Finish in Iowa – PPP
Pollster PPP has one of the better track records, and its final Iowa poll shows very little daylight between the top three of Romney, Santorum and Paul:
The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
• More than winning, front-runners must meet expectations – Des Moines Register
The DMR's awesome coverage of the caucuses continues with this piece running through the candidates and the best and worst they can expect from Tuesday night's result
• Santorum's Challenge: Broaden His Appeal Beyond Evangelical Christians – New York Times
Classic NYT reportage-analysis piece on Santorum's sudden rise in the Iowa polls.
• Last full day of campaigning: Who will make it through? – Des Moines Register
How each candidate plans to make use of the final hours before the caucuses.
• Ron Paul's Secret Plan To Actually Win – Buzzfeed
Mildly misleading title but a smart deconstruction of the Ron Paul national strategy from Buzzfeed's brand new political unit – the brash newcomer to the US political media that you will be hearing a lot more of. A lot. (The "secret plan," by the way, is the Obama 2008 model of dominating the caucuses and racking up delegates in places like North Dakota.)
Good morning: with less than 36 hours to go until Iowa's caucuses take place, the first GOP presidential race couldn't be closer and the candidates are delivering their closing arguments in a desperate push to win.
The latest polling shows little to seperate Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum in the top tier, with a mini-battle going on between Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann to win the second division and maybe the last ticket in the bus out of Iowa.
What we'll see from now until the caucuses actually start at 8pm ET is retail politics on a scale rarely seen. The race is so tight that one slip today could see a candidate toppling off the tightrope and into the clown section.
We'll be keeping tabs on the candidates movements today, with reporters on the ground in the Hawkeye State. Stay tuned – and leave your comments below.
And don't forget to enter our exciting Iowa Caucus Prediction competition – and win prizes.