Follow Thursday's political action in Iowa as GOP candidate Rick Santorum jumps in the polls with just five days remaining
• Read our mid-day summary here
Good morning: as the political world recovers from the shock of Rick Santorum rocketing up in the latest poll of Iowa Republican voters, the field of GOP presidential candidates is showing increasing desperation with only five days remaining until Iowa's caucuses.
Michele Bachmann's stumbling campaign received a bitter blow late last night when its Iowa co-chair dramatically announced that he was jumping ship to support the surging Ron Paul – setting off a bitter war of words from Bachmann.
As the pace of campaigning reaches fever pitch, the candidates risk slips of the tongue, as both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney discovered – Perry appearing to count Canada as part of the US and Romney threatening popular children's television show Sesame Street.
In other words, another typical day on the campaign trail in Iowa – and we'll be following all the action here live.
You can catch with yesterday's events by reading this summary of Wednesday's activity.
Here's a round-up of today's should-reads:
• Michele Bachmann's Iowa campaign chief switches to Ron Paul - Guardian
The eye-opening news from last night that a co-chair of Michele Bachmann's campaign suddenly switched sides to Ron Paul.
• Marching Orders for Paul's Volunteers: Do Shave, Don't Tweet – New York Times
Fantastic piece by the New York Times from inside the Ron Paul campaign organisation. This is proper journalism. Read this and don't be surprised when Ron Paul wins Iowa.
• Romney Sets Sights on Iowa Win After Stealth Campaign – Bloomberg News
A smart wrap-up of Romney's campaign ambitions in Iowa.
• In Iowa, Obama toils while GOP roars, then departs – Associated Press
Clever, under-the-radar piece from AP's Charles Babington on the bigger picture in Iowa:
One presidential campaign claims an impressive effort in Iowa this year: eight offices opened, 350,000 phone calls to potential supporters and 1,280 events to recruit and train volunteers.
It's not Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul. It's Obama for America, the president's re-election campaign, which badly wants to win this battleground state in November, as it did in 2008.
So where in Iowa are the candidates today?
• Mitt Romney: Started early with a breakfast meeting. Various events planned, the highlight being a meet and greet at Music Man Square in Mason City – Mason City being the original model for "River City, Iowa" in the musical The Music Man.
Expect Romney to give a speech along the lines of "We've got trouble, right here in Mason City," and propose a boy's marching band with 76 trombones as the solution.
• Newt Gingrich: A hectic round of events and town halls, capped off with a visit at 7pm CT to the Santa Maria Vineyard and Winery in Carroll, Iowa. Yes, Newt Gingrich is visiting a vineyard in Iowa.
• Rick Perry: Continues his bus tour of Iowa, including a 12.30pm stop at the Blue Strawberry Coffee Company in Cedar Rapids.
• Ron Paul: Three town hall meetings across the state, but kicking off the day with an in-studio interview with Jan Mickelson on WHO Radio. Ron Paul, that's WHO.
• Michele Bachmann: No visits to a single Pizza Ranch outlet today, although she fits a meet and greet in at the Snack Time Family Restaurant in Nevada. That's Nevada, Iowa – something that will really confuse Rick Perry.
• Rick Santorum: More town halls, finishing up with a rally at the Center for Active Seniors in Davenport. Active enough to get to the caucuses, Santorum hopes.
• Jon Huntsman: Stealth campaign to win Iowa continues with meeting at the Page Belting Company in Laconia, New Hampshire.
Another sign Ron Paul is being taken very seriously: a Jewish human rights organisation wants him to explain some of his alleged views on Israel.
Rabbi Marvin Hier and Rabbi Abraham Cooper of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre say in a statement released this morning:
While the Presidential campaign is not focused on Israel, these are serious charges. We must be fair to Ron Paul and give him the opportunity to clarify his position and he must be honest with the American people before they are asked to cast their vote for the most powerful office in the world.
The always excellent Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia looks into his Crystal Ball and sees four possible scenarios coming out of the Iowa caucuses. Such as this one:
Scenario 3: Inconclusive result clouds the future
What if Romney, Gingrich and Paul ended up with nearly the same percentage of the caucus vote, keeping anyone from claiming a credible mandate or generating momentum?
Newt Gingrich has been on the receiving end of some brutal attacks – and none more devastating than this piece in the conservative Washington Examiner by Timothy Carney on how Gingrich has used his presidential run for his business ends, "Newt Inc":
Gingrich has exploited conservatism, because he has profited not by advancing the cause, but by harming it. He made money as a consultant and lobbyist trying to convince conservatives to support subsidies for housing, prescription drugs and ethanol. And this year, he has profited by temporarily convincing millions of conservatives that he's the right man to beat Obama.
There's a popular saying about causes that "start as a mass movement, become a business, and end up a racket." With Gingrich, a movement that changed American politics in 1994 has evolved into a Tiffany-studded, jet-setting lifestyle.
Ouch. The whole thing is worth reading.
Exclusive footage of Mitt Romney's campaign meet and greet in River City, Iowa:
Actually, if Romney was half this exciting the GOP race would be all over by now.
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is on the ground in Iowa and reports on the possible collapse of Michele Bachmann's campaign after the shock defection of one of her biggest Iowa supporters last night:
Five days left to the Iowa caucus and the Bachmann campaign looks as if it is imploding. Bad enough that the state chairman of her campaign, Kent Sorenson, defects to the Ron Paul campaign. But this morning her Iowa political director, Wes Enos, disavows her claim that Sorenson left for financial reasons.
Enos, in a statement, said there is no way money is involved: "I cannot, in good conscious watch a good man like Ken Sorenson be attacked as a 'sell-out'." What chance Enos is still part of her campaign by midnight tonight?
Bachmann has had problems holding staff before. The veteran political strategist, Ed Rollins, quit earlier this year. He initially cited health reasons but later criticised her for refusing to listen and for being short of campaign funds. But this is much, much worse. If she comes in fourth in Iowa, will she carry on to New Hampshire and South Carolina or, more likely, just drop out?
CNN reported on the initial reaction from Bachmann and her campaign:
After the state senator from Indianola stunned Iowa political watchers by showing up on stage at a Paul rally late Wednesday, the Bachmann campaign released a statement from the candidate accusing Sorenson of leaving for money.
"Kent Sorenson personally told me he was offered a large sum of money to go to work for the Paul campaign," Bachmann said.
At this point Bachmann will be lucky to come fourth, which would mean she would finish ahead of one of Ron Paul, Romney, Gingrich or Santorum. Fifth or sixth place is more likely – and that will finish off her campaign.
How confident is Mitt Romney of winning in Iowa? Pretty confident, after the news that Romney is staying in Iowa on Tuesday night, rather than fleeing to New Hampshire.
The Des Moines Register reports:
On Tuesday night, the Romney campaign will host a post-caucus party at the Hotel Fort Des Moines. The candidate will give remarks, and he and his wife and some of his five sons will mingle with supporters, Romney's Iowa consultant David Kochel said.
The next morning, the former governor will do press interviews before flying to New Hampshire, the next state on the voting calendar and a crucial contest for Romney.
Standard operating procedure is to leave town as soon as possible if you are not going to bask in the winner's circle limelight. So by staying the extra day, that suggests Romney is confident of doing well in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Reuters seems to think so, asking: Could Romney score an early knockout?:
On Wednesday Romney was having a hard time containing a smile at the thought of striking such a huge blow so early in the primary season.
"I can't possibly allow myself to think in such optimistic terms," Romney said during a stop at Homer's Bakery in Clinton, Iowa.
The terms "Rick Perry" and "gaffe" have been together so often during this election campaign that they should probably get a civil partnership.
In Iowa this week Perry has been at it again, saying:
Every barrel of oil that comes out of those sands in Canada is a barrel of oil we don't have to buy from a foreign source.
Ah. Technically, Canada is a "foreign country" with its own government and everything. But let's not forget: Perry thinks much the same thing about Texas.
But anyway we all know what he means here by "foreign". If you get my drift. A nod is as good as a wink. Know what I mean? Ah ha.
It must be time for a new poll from Iowa and here it is from Rasmussen, via Fox News:
23% Mitt Romney
22% Ron Paul
16% Rick Santorum
13% Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich
5% Michele Bachmann
3% Jon Huntsman
More details as we get them but that confirms the other post-Christmas polling with the Paul/Romney/Santorum top three.
More good news for Mitt Romney in another Rasmussen poll this morning, in a one-on-one match-up with President Obama:
The latest national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely US Voters favor the former Massachusetts governor, while 39% prefer the president.
More bad news for Michele Bachmann? This nugget comes from the Associated Press in Des Moines:
Two politically active pastors in Iowa's robust evangelical conservative movement disclosed an effort to persuade either Santorum or Bachmann to quit the race and endorse the other. "Otherwise, like-minded people will be divided and water down their impact," said Rev. Cary Gordon, a Sioux City minister and a leader among Iowa's social conservatives.
It looks as if Santorum has become the default evangelical conservative candidate, based on the latest polling. Maybe Bachmann should have taken the chance to get out while the going was good-ish.
A really good attack ad metaphorically puts its boot on your opponent's throat and kicks him in the head with the other boot.
Which is basically what this new Restore Our Future – Mitt Romney-backing Super Pac – ad does to Newt Gingrich on Iowa's TV screens.
More polls, although smaller and less robust than Rasmussen's poll reported earlier.
An InsiderAdvantage poll of 429 Iowans – small sample size – tells us:
17% Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich
13% Santorum
12% Bachmann
10% Perry
Well that tells us nothing at all. Good job. The details of the poll split the top three by just 0.5 of a percentage point. Which in a poll this size is two people.
More from the Rasmussen Iowa caucus poll reported earlier:
Forty-one percent (41%) of all caucus participants say they still could change their minds, and 6% more have no first preference, suggesting that much could still change in the next five days.
Among voters who could still change their minds, Romney remains the leading second choice with 20% support. Perry and Santorum are next with 17% support each, followed by Gingrich and Paul who both earn 12% of the vote.
That suggests to me a Romney win, because of his higher ceiling, compared with Paul. And a hint that Santorum or Perry may do better than expected.
How far has Newt Gingrich fallen? According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, 18 days ago Gingrich was polling in first place with 31% in Iowa. Today, counting the two new polls that have been published, Gingrich gets 14% and a tie for third with Santorum.
The glamour of American journalism, part one:
Why do you hate America, Scott Conroy? Hmm?
Here's a late lunchtime summary of the state of play in the GOP presidential race in Iowa:
• With five days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, six candidates continue to criss-cross the state in an all-out bid for victory
• New polls show the caucus result remains on a knife-edge, with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the lead, closely followed by Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry
• Michele Bachmann repeated her allegations that her campaign co-chair Kent Sorenson – who dramatically switched to support Ron Paul last night – was offered money by the Paul campaign
• A Super Pac supporting Mitt Romney unleashed another highly critical ad against Newt Gingrich, accusing the former Speaker of having to repeatedly apologise for errors
Iowa state senator Kent Sorenson appears on Fox News, to be questioned by Megyn Kelly about his switch to Ron Paul, having been Michele Bahmann's Iowa co-chair.
"I was always in the Ron Paul camp before Michele Bachmann came onto the scene," says Sorenson, describing his election as a state senator in a tough political environment. "The only people who came to my aid in 2008 was the Ron Paul people."
"Frankly our viewers don't care all that much about your re-election," says Kelly, snootily.
Sorenson explains that he joined Bachmann's campaign before Ron Paul joined the presidential race but changed sides last night because he wants to stop Mitt Romney.
Fox News then play a clip of Michele Bachmann today on Iowa radio claiming that Sorenson told her "the Ron Paul campaign offered money to Kent Sorenson".
"Is the congresswoman making that up?" asks Kelly. "Unfortunately, yes she is," says Sorenson, who denies everything.
The Occupy the Caucuses movment is in action again, with five members being arrested outside of Ron Paul's Iowa campaign headquarters.
Ron Paul doesn't seem an obvious target, given his hostility to Wall Street and big banks. But today's protest was over Paul's proposal to shot down the Environmental Protection Agency.
A spokesperson for Occupy the Caucuses said the plan is for protesters to go to the campaign headquarters of each Republican candidate and President Barack Obama's campaign office before the weekend.
The Associated Press has another wrinkle in the Kent Sorenson affair:
Susan Geddes, a veteran operative in conservative GOP political circles who managed Sorenson's 2008 and 2010 legislative races, said Sorenson had told her several times, as recently as last month, that the Paul campaign had offered him money to leave Bachmann's campaign for the Texas congressman's.
Geddes said Sorenson had damaged his political future in Iowa by abandoning Bachmann's campaign less than a week before the caucuses.
"He just committed political suicide," she said.
At last, Rick Santorum has done well enough to merit his own attack ad – from Rick Perry, in the battle for the bronze medal.
Not a bad ad either – now running on radio in Iowa.
My colleague Ewen MacAskill is in Des Moines, where he sees Mitt Romney's nomination chances improving:
A strong finish in Iowa, the first of the contests to choose a Republican nominee to take on Barack Obama, would provide Romney with momentum for those that follow and could wrap up the race for the nomination by the end of the month.
This is how political campaigns die: not with a bang but a whimper. Via the Associated Press:
On Thursday, Bachmann dismissed the idea that her campaign was in disarray following the departure of former Iowa chairman Kent Sorenson the night before. She said her campaign organization is strong and that she is looking ahead to Tuesday's first-in-the-nation caucuses.
Trying to find a better source for this, but there's another poll out from Iowa, this time from ARG, not famously accurate but there we are.
22% Mitt Romney
17% Newt Gingrich
16% Ron Paul
11% Rick Santorum
9% Rick Perry
8% Michele Bachmann
6% Jon Huntsman
Wow, Jon Huntsman with 6%? Otherwise, falls for Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. Hum. A sample of 600 "likely Iowa Republican caucus participants" done over the Christmas period.
The National Journal's Beth Reinhard badgers Ron Paul this morning over breakfast in her hotel:
Paul doesn't need a sidekick to fill his plate at the breakfast buffet, fetch his coffee, whisper talking points into his ear, or get rid of pesky reporters – he does that all himself, thank you very much. Asked if he's concerned that if he doesn't win his followers will not rally behind the GOP nominee, he looks up from his plate of cantaloupe, honeydew, eggs, sausage and biscuit and says brusquely, "Right now, the only thing that bothers me is people who don't respect my privacy enough to leave me alone for five minutes when I'm eating breakfast." And then he goes back to reading his USA Today.
Charming. (By the way, if this were to happen to Romney, which it wouldn't, a SWAT team would immediately surround the reporter to oversee damage control.)
Journalist solidarity and all but I'm with Ron Paul on breakfast.
One of the reasons the Iowa race is exciting is because it's close. New Hampshire, the so-called "First In The Nation" primary, is dull as ditchwater because of next-door neighbour Mitt Romney's domination there. Pollsters PPP report from their latest poll:
Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within two points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire two weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.
There's little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher even than Paul's number on that front.
Gingrich finishing a bad third or fouth would nearly knock him out. And a third might be the best Huntsman can do.
More polling – the latest Gallup daily tracker shows Gingrich slipping behind Romney nationally:
Mitt Romney has edged ahead of Newt Gingrich, 27% to 23%, for the national lead among Republican voters for the first time since Gallup Daily tracking of the Republican race began on December 1. Ron Paul remains in deep third place with 11% of the GOP vote, followed by Rick Perry at 8%.
Michele Bachmann is trying to channel Margaret Thatcher on the stump in Iowa.
That tweet is from the Politico's Juana Summers.
Obviously Bachmann hasn't looked too closely at Thatcher's record. Maggie is way too liberal to win the Iowa caucuses, let along the Republican nomination. You think Obamacare is bad? Thatcher once said the NHS was "safe in my hands". Basically she was a socialist in Amnerican political terms.
Campaign television ad spending in Iowa reaches more than $12m, the AP's Beth Fouhy reports, much of it in the closing days of the campaign:
At least $12.5 million and counting has blanketed the airwaves ahead of next Tuesday's Republican presidential caucuses, with hard-hitting commercials awash in ghoulish images and startling claims. Most are coming from a proliferation of new independent groups aligned with the candidates.
Here's the latest statement from Kent Sorenson, Michele Bachmann's Iowa co-chair who switched to backing Ron Paul:
I was never offered money from the Ron Paul campaign or anyone associated with them.
The latest development is that Wes Enos – Bachmann's political director who defended Sorenson against Bachmann's allegations that Sorenson was offered money to change sides – is said to "no longer be with the campaign".
Meanwhile, here's a video from Yahoo's David Chalian talking to Ron Paul supporters and potential supporters in Iowa.
Several people have been arrested outside the Democratic party headquarters in Des Moines during a protest by the Occupy the Caucus and Occupy Des Moines groups.
Time to wrap the blog up for the evening, thanks for reading.