Ms Merkel is trying to make it a fait accompli just as support for it is wavering
A wellhead of votes gushed open on Friday for the socialist candidate in next week's presidential election, François Hollande. It had been drilled by Nicolas Sarkozy's backer and fellow conservative – Angela Merkel. Dismissing one of Hollande's central campaign pledges, she said the fiscal pact was not up for re-negotiation. Mr Hollande shot back that Germany does not speak for Europe, adding that France had already expressed its choice for a new approach to Europe. All of which is true.
If one thought unites the anti-Sarkozy vote from left to right, it is that the inflexible pursuit of austerity is pushing Europe into a deflationary spiral, lengthening dole queues and increasing the misery all around. For the man with the Mona Lisa smile, the German chancellor's first and last intervention in the French election was a gift.
Her case was not helped by the sound of tinkling glass around her. The government in Romania became the latest after the Netherlands to collapse over budget cuts, and the Czech government could also be not long for this world. Spain is facing a crisis of huge proportions and its credit rating was slashed. With friends like these, Ms Merkel is looking exposed to her ideological foes. While 25 of the 27 EU members signed her pact at the EU summit last month, only three – Portugal, Greece and Slovenia – have ratified it.
If Mr Hollande becomes president and goes on to win a majority of seats in parliament, there is no chance that France will ratify the pact in its present form. Ms Merkel is trying to make it a fait accompli just as support for it is wavering. True, its critics have different plan Bs, but the need to support growth, which Ms Merkel put second to spending cuts, is rising up the EU's agenda. To Mr Hollande's delight Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, called this week for a growth pact to augment Berlin's fiscal treaty.
All this is for public consumption, but the reality for both leaders after next Sunday's election might make their first meeting more consensual than today seems possible. The next French president will inherit a balance of payments crisis to tax the coolest of heads. France pays more in interest on its debt than it does on education. Unlike Japan, or Britain, French government debt is largely foreign-owned. He can raise taxes, but he cannot print money or revalue his currency. The latitude he has to spend his way out of crisis is more limited than he is admits. German opposition to fiscal stimulus, and increasing the debt, will also have to bend. The German industrial giants can talk as much as they want about their exports to China, but what is happening in their biggest market will hit them too.