Santorum has emerged as Romney's latest, perhaps greatest challenger. But in this volatile GOP race, we've been here before
The 2012 Republican primary season has been full of candidate surges. Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum and Trump have all seen sudden bursts of support. Often times, these surges are pretty easy to spot. Witness Rick Santorum's rise after his Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri victories last Tuesday. He's risen nearly 20 points nationally and in Michigan. The media, in turn, has reacted with the usual and expected "Santorum comes from nowhere" articles. What often is less reported is when these new-found "GOP savior" candidates begin to plateau and sink back to earth.
Newt Gingrich was riding high in early December. He lead in every poll coming out of Iowa. On Saturday 10 December, Gingrich seemingly cemented his position as the new frontrunner with a "strong" debate performance. Mitt Romney made perhaps the most memorable gaffe of his campaign, betting Rick Perry $10,000. Rick Santorum was on absolutely nobody's radar.
Then, a funny thing happened … It all began to fall apart for Newt Gingrich.
The collapse started innocuously. Public Policy Polling first reported on Sunday that Gingrich's favorable ratings were dropping. Then, on Monday, American Research Group came out with a poll finding Gingrich's lead down to six points (well below the 10-15 point lead most pollsters were finding the week before). By the time the next debate came, on Thursday 15 December, Gingrich did not lead in a single poll. How did most mainstream analysts not see the Gingrich implosion coming?
Most of the pundits on television are shockingly influenced by the culture of the mainstream media. While they were seeing Gingrich doing well in a debate, most Iowans were witnessing and being influenced by negative Gingrich ads being run by Mitt Romney's Super Pac, Restore Our Future. The ads weren't saying anything anything that politicos didn't already know, but it turns out that most average Iowans had forgotten all the bad stuff about Newt Gingrich. Once they were reminded, Gingrich's ballon popped.
Three weeks after Gingrich's Iowa flop, Rick Santorum rode a tremendous last-second wave to win (as it later turned out) the Iowa caucuses. The win was supposed to catapult Santorum to a strong finish in the New Hampshire primary. Initial polling by Suffolk University demonstrated Santorum going from 3 points just before Iowa, to 11 points in four days.
Then, as if from out of thin air, Santorum's upward movement just stopped. I was doubtful of Santorum doing well in New Hampshire, but even so, I was surprised that he ended up with less than 10% of the vote. Whether it was the more moderate New Hampshire electorate or Santorum's lack of headway in the debates, it's impossible to know why exactly the Santorum surge pt 1 flopped.
Eleven days after the first Santorum surge subsided, Gingrich's second rally reached its zenith. Buoyed by two bravura debate performances (including a memorable confrontation with CNN's John King), Gingrich gained 25 points in five days and upended Romney's romp to the nomination by winning the South Carolina primary on Saturday 21 January.
Overnight, Gingrich erased Romney's lead Florida lead. Gingrich led by 5 to 10 percentage points in the Florida polling conducted Sunday through Monday. But as in Iowa, Gingrich's lead was not safe from Romney and his Super Pac attacks.
Gingrich's Florida slide began almost the same way it did in Iowa. On Monday night, Gingrich supposedly held his own in a debate. The after-debate NBC panel didn't think that Romney had done enough to stop the Gingrich tide. On Tuesday, a WeAskAmerica poll gave Romney's his first lead since before South Carolina. By Wednesday, Romney led in two other polls conducted on Monday through Tuesday. And by the time the Florida primary occurred, on 31 January, Romney won the state by 14.5 percentage points.
The Florida victory was supposed to take Romney to the nomination. The February states were said to be favorable to Romney. He had defeated Gingrich once and for all, and Santorum had no money. He rode a wave of favorable press to take a large lead in national polling.
But Santorum was lurking. As Romney and his Super Pac were pummelling Gingrich into the ground, Santorum bided his time. He built up incredibly positive favorability ratings. Smart analysts saw that Santorum was a more formidable foe than Gingrich, and Romney's rise had been more a matter of which states had voted than his actually convincing people formerly against his candidacy to back him.
One week after Romney's Florida triumph, Rick Santorum won Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Fox News' poll demonstrated Santorum's immediate poll movement. Nationally, he jumped from 17% just before the three contests, to 30% just after them, while Romney dropped from 35% to 30% during the same period. Almost all the live-interview national polling following the contests have given Santorum a 2 to 3 percentage-point lead.
The question is whether Santorum will continue to rise – or will he drop?
I'm willing to say, at this point, that Santorum's numbers nationally have stabilised. The difference between a tie and a 2-3 point lead is insignificant. Gallup's tracking poll has shown Romney maintaining a 2-point lead over the last three days, after the initial Santorum bump. Two polls (Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen) give Santorum a double-digit edge, but both use automated polling technology. That's not to say they are wrong, but it does mean they are different. Santorum's lead was 15 points late last week, according to PPP, while it was 12 Tuesday, according to Rasmussen.
Now, it's entirely possible that Santorum begins a new ascent. This season, anything is possible. Further, the polling data out of the all-important Michigan primary is mixed. All of it shows a Santorum lead – to differing degrees. A win in Michigan would provide Santorum with great momentum going forward.
But as in Iowa and Florida, Romney's Super Pac is now blasting Michigan with negative advertising. Politicos may have seen this horse-and-pony show before, but Romney's ads were state-specific. Most Michiganites have never seen the negative ads outside of what they have heard on the news, so I don't believe they will be immune to them. Then again, Rick Santorum is no Newt Gingrich – with his obvious vulnerabilities.
But if Santorum begins to fall back, it will come one poll at a time. At first, we might think that poll is an outlier, but then other polls will confirm it. The slow dip will become a steep curve.